London’s murder rate has dropped to its lowest in more than a decade with police in the capital and the mayor saying it is now one of the safest cities in the western world.

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  • CyberEgg@discuss.tchncs.deOP
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    2 hours ago

    but by the same logic the number from the headline should also be treated as an outlier.

    If the only information we had, yes. We do have mire context though. We do have a specific place and the article gives additional information about the long term trends over decades. That is the relevant context.

    This is a setup for failure. If the numbers are not dropping anymore and the left wing is not ready to acknowledge it

    If, if, if. If the numbers are not dropping anymore, we need more context, yes. For example, we need to look at the development of factors known to influence criminal behavior, like poverty rates, crisis situations, existential worries etc. Rhat is exactly my point the whole time, ffs.
    Also I don’t know what you want to insinuate about the left wing now? At least here in Germany, Die Linke is the only party actually wanting to address issues that contribute to the decision towards criminal activities, like housing crisis, rising cost of living, etc.

    It’s not all just fearmongering that convinces people to vote for the right wing.

    Why do you think that is what I said? I didn’t state anything alike. It’s just the factor we’re discussing.

    • plyth@feddit.org
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      1 hour ago

      Why do you think that is what I said?

      I was talking about the sentence that I quoted.

      In general I agree with you and I agree with the trend. However, my opinion is that the AfD and other parties wouldn’t be successful if the established parties had acknowledged the outliers.

      • CyberEgg@discuss.tchncs.deOP
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        45 minutes ago

        I was talking about the sentence that I quoted.

        The sentence you quoted basically says that crime rates are not the reason for the rise of right wing parties. Nothing about fearmongering, that was my point.

        However, my opinion is that the AfD and other parties wouldn’t be successful if the established parties had acknowledged the outliers.

        And how do you think those outliers should have been acknowledged? Outliers are a regular occurence in statistics. Any acknowledgment that goes beyond “Yeah, that’s strange, however this is just an outlier at the moment, nothing to worry about yet” at the first sight of such an outlier is an overreaction. The far right overreacts (and I accuse them of doing so knowingly) by erecting bogeymen and accusing others of not acknowledging a statistic outlier by not overreacting. Combine that with conservative and neoliberal politics that did not appropriately react to actual crises, continue to exacerbate the living conditions for working class citizens, amplify precarious situations and play the same bogeymen as the far right and you have a nice boost in popularity for the far right. A media landscape that on one hand supports far right narratives and on the other hand fails to contextualize news and politicians’ outputs also helps a lot.

        • plyth@feddit.org
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          24 minutes ago

          says that crime rates are not the reason for the rise of right wing parties. Nothing about fearmongering, that was my point.

          Which implies that there is no reason for their rise but fearmongering.

          Any acknowledgment that goes beyond “Yeah, that’s strange, however this is just an outlier at the moment, nothing to worry about yet” at the first sight of such an outlier is an overreaction.

          It is but I would still take it serious and increase the police force. It doesn’t hurt immigrants to have more police and it removes an argument for the right wing parties.

          and play the same bogeymen as the far right and you have a nice boost in popularity for the far right. A media landscape that on one hand supports far right narratives and on the other hand fails to contextualize news and politicians’ outputs also helps a lot.

          I agree. So why keep falling into that trap?

          But what if 2023 is no outlier? Look at chapter 6.2, development of violent crimes, page 41.

          https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/downloads/DE/publikationen/themen/sicherheit/BMI25028_pks-2024.pdf

          There seems to be a decline until 2021, after which violent crime is rising.