Angela Merkel’s calm steadied a wounded nation — but it also put it to sleep. For sixteen years, Germany mistook caution for competence and comfort for courage. This essay dissects how the myth of …
Then I asked you to explain within the simple model how the acceptance of Trump can be explained. I can only explain it to myself with coordination.
Trump is running amok and turns the US inside out with no respect for rules, laws and conventions. No-one over there wants to be the one that stands out as criticising him, possibly ruining their business. But that’s a new phenomenon and can hardly explain the behaviour of the US for the last 30ish years.
In a tradewar I cannot imagine that Taiwan ignores a potential wish of the US to limit exports to the EU for that.
That would be the case no matter what we do. As you can see now, even “being friends” with him doesn’t stop him from punishing us.
Who would align with the EU and not one of them?
That’s for us to achieve. Democracies who want to maintain the rule of law could be interested in a more reliable partner than the US.
Remember Biontec? They chose a US company for production.
Could be changed with the necessary political initiatives. And should be changed.
It is inevitable for products that are only available in China and America, if you decouple from China.
Which products are available only in China and America for which a European counterpart is inconceivable?
Timing. We have to change things first or we couple with the US.
Fine. I’m not the one stopping us.
Where is the money?
To be spent by Europe for Europe, instead of shovelling it abroad. We have to be as protectionist as the US and China.
to show that the simplified model cannot explain everything.
It can, though.
So can we give up on trading with China or do we do it because we are asked to decouple?
Trump is only a glimpse of our future, being increasingly bullied around. Hence, it shows the importance to obtain independence and sever ties to these rivals as fast as possible.
Microchips and AI, for now. But whatever it is, the size requires that it is always something.
There’s European AI and concerning microchips: only further underlines the importance for us of protecting Taiwan against the threats of their aggressive neighbour.
I still don’t get it. How can the billionaires accept Trump’s politics if markets are closing for them?
Trump is only a glimpse of our future, being increasingly bullied around. Hence, it shows the importance to obtain independence and sever ties to these rivals as fast as possible.
It does. But why decouple from China as long as we depend on the USA?
There’s European AI
We have AI at home. The French AI is ‘surprisingly good’. Is that enough?
concerning microchips: only further underlines the importance for us of protecting Taiwan against the threats of their aggressive neighbour.
Your answer to the US being able to influence Taiwanese export policy is that we have to be able to protect it from China?
That would be an option, but a serious argument would have come with an idea of how that could be achieved.
How can the billionaires accept Trump’s politics if markets are closing for them?
Because they think if they don’t appease the mobster, he will cut them out of any business in the US. Given that he likes to reign like an absolute ruler, I can see that happening, but still would advise them to stop sucking up to him. We won’t hear what they really think of him until he’s no longer in power. Whenever that’ll be.
But why decouple from China as long as we depend on the USA?
You need to decouple from both. Otherwise, you’ll just shift your dependencies to the other country instead.
The French AI is ‘surprisingly good’. Is that enough?
It will have to do. And if we funnel our funds into that instead of sending the money to our rivals, like the others do anyways, we can have top notch products.
That would be an option, but a serious argument would have come with an idea of how that could be achieved.
There are numerous levels of support. Bolstering and recognising Taiwan, providing economic and military assistance, making the point that we won’t accept China’s invasion. China and the US cannot be the only parties on the world that can project power.
Because they think if they don’t appease the mobster, he will cut them out of any business in the US.
There was no need to end up like this. Billionaires have above average intelligence and a team of intelligent advisers. Project 2025 was known, and much more, since they know him in person or through friends and acquaintances.
They wanted second term Trump or at least didn’t try to prevent it even though they had the money to do it.
So they must have a common goal.
You need to decouple from both. Otherwise, you’ll just shift your dependencies to the other country instead.
More, you become dependend because there is no opportunity for replacement.
It will have to do. And if we funnel our funds into that instead of sending the money to our rivals, like the others do anyways, we can have top notch products.
Right now the AI companies sell their models for a loss.
OpenAI generated around $4.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025
Raking in billions though it may be, OpenAI has also committed to spending over $1 trillion over the next decade (yes, trillion).
That’s a “ReArm Europe” amount of money. I would say that it is worthwhile to spend but I doubt it will be spent.
The problem is that we don’t have the private capital for that. Do you expect the EU to bet on state-run companies?
making the point that we won’t accept China’s invasion. China and the US cannot be the only parties on the world that can project power.
Should the EU invest that AI € trillion better in carrier groups? In which country are we going to build bases to be able to supply the carrier groups while they defend Taiwan from China?
If the EU is stretched too thin no battle will be won.
More, you become dependend because there is no opportunity for replacement.
Why should there be no opportunity for replacement?
The problem is that we don’t have the private capital for that.
What numbers do you base that on?
In which country are we going to build bases to be able to supply the carrier groups while they defend Taiwan from China?
Taiwan, for example. If we can credibly conceive the determination to defend Taiwan with everything we have, including nukes, there won’t be a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
Yes. Why accept tariffs and isolating foreign markets if you are greedy? Why push for lgbtq for years and accept a 180 turn?
Why should there be no opportunity for replacement?
For products that are only available in both countries.
What numbers do you base that on?
Some EU report that I cannot find. The funding problen is also shown here, at page 280. However it looks better because in theory the EU citizens would have more money. But I doubt that billionaires are included if the money is held in foundations.
Taiwan, for example. If we can credibly conceive the determination to defend Taiwan with everything we have, including nukes, there won’t be a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
China can do a naval blockade. Do we go nuclear over that? If we do, do we also build a star shield, like China does, after the US started?
Either we have had massive excess capacities or we have to do massive cuts and retrain engineers and workers, or even wait for the next generation. What do we cut?
I don’t see how we can secure Taiwan. It would be easier to build the chips, and that’s already very difficult.
Yes. Why accept tariffs and isolating foreign markets if you are greedy?
Because the domestic market is more important to them than the foreign. And the domestic market is controlled by Trump.
Why push for lgbtq for years and accept a 180 turn?
Exactly. They never “pushed for lgbtq” but did it as long as there was money to be made with. Now the climate changed in the US and they adapt.
For products that are only available in both countries.
Didn’t you also agree that the French AI is surprisingly good? If we can make that, why are you still so afraid?
The funding problen is also shown here, at page 280. However it looks better because in theory the EU citizens would have more money.
Exactly. And the report also states that public investment is needed to pave the way for private investments. So it is mainly a policy issue - which can be addressed.
China can do a naval blockade. Do we go nuclear over that?
If we mean it when we say that it is in our strategic interest to keep Taiwan sovereign, then ultimately yes.
Trump is running amok and turns the US inside out with no respect for rules, laws and conventions. No-one over there wants to be the one that stands out as criticising him, possibly ruining their business. But that’s a new phenomenon and can hardly explain the behaviour of the US for the last 30ish years.
That would be the case no matter what we do. As you can see now, even “being friends” with him doesn’t stop him from punishing us.
That’s for us to achieve. Democracies who want to maintain the rule of law could be interested in a more reliable partner than the US.
Could be changed with the necessary political initiatives. And should be changed.
Which products are available only in China and America for which a European counterpart is inconceivable?
Fine. I’m not the one stopping us.
To be spent by Europe for Europe, instead of shovelling it abroad. We have to be as protectionist as the US and China.
Doesn’t have, to show that the simplified model cannot explain everything.
So can we give up on trading with China or do we do it because we are asked to decouple?
Microchips and AI, for now. But whatever it is, the size requires that it is always something.
Technically it’s Taiwan but Nvidea wanted to keep supplying China.
It can, though.
Trump is only a glimpse of our future, being increasingly bullied around. Hence, it shows the importance to obtain independence and sever ties to these rivals as fast as possible.
There’s European AI and concerning microchips: only further underlines the importance for us of protecting Taiwan against the threats of their aggressive neighbour.
I still don’t get it. How can the billionaires accept Trump’s politics if markets are closing for them?
It does. But why decouple from China as long as we depend on the USA?
We have AI at home. The French AI is ‘surprisingly good’. Is that enough?
Your answer to the US being able to influence Taiwanese export policy is that we have to be able to protect it from China?
That would be an option, but a serious argument would have come with an idea of how that could be achieved.
Because they think if they don’t appease the mobster, he will cut them out of any business in the US. Given that he likes to reign like an absolute ruler, I can see that happening, but still would advise them to stop sucking up to him. We won’t hear what they really think of him until he’s no longer in power. Whenever that’ll be.
You need to decouple from both. Otherwise, you’ll just shift your dependencies to the other country instead.
It will have to do. And if we funnel our funds into that instead of sending the money to our rivals, like the others do anyways, we can have top notch products.
There are numerous levels of support. Bolstering and recognising Taiwan, providing economic and military assistance, making the point that we won’t accept China’s invasion. China and the US cannot be the only parties on the world that can project power.
There was no need to end up like this. Billionaires have above average intelligence and a team of intelligent advisers. Project 2025 was known, and much more, since they know him in person or through friends and acquaintances.
They wanted second term Trump or at least didn’t try to prevent it even though they had the money to do it.
So they must have a common goal.
More, you become dependend because there is no opportunity for replacement.
Right now the AI companies sell their models for a loss.
That’s a “ReArm Europe” amount of money. I would say that it is worthwhile to spend but I doubt it will be spent.
The problem is that we don’t have the private capital for that. Do you expect the EU to bet on state-run companies?
Should the EU invest that AI € trillion better in carrier groups? In which country are we going to build bases to be able to supply the carrier groups while they defend Taiwan from China?
If the EU is stretched too thin no battle will be won.
Do you disagree with what I said, though?
Why should there be no opportunity for replacement?
What numbers do you base that on?
Taiwan, for example. If we can credibly conceive the determination to defend Taiwan with everything we have, including nukes, there won’t be a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
Yes. Why accept tariffs and isolating foreign markets if you are greedy? Why push for lgbtq for years and accept a 180 turn?
For products that are only available in both countries.
Some EU report that I cannot find. The funding problen is also shown here, at page 280. However it looks better because in theory the EU citizens would have more money. But I doubt that billionaires are included if the money is held in foundations.
https://commission.europa.eu/topics/eu-competitiveness/draghi-report_en
China can do a naval blockade. Do we go nuclear over that? If we do, do we also build a star shield, like China does, after the US started?
Either we have had massive excess capacities or we have to do massive cuts and retrain engineers and workers, or even wait for the next generation. What do we cut?
I don’t see how we can secure Taiwan. It would be easier to build the chips, and that’s already very difficult.
Because the domestic market is more important to them than the foreign. And the domestic market is controlled by Trump.
Exactly. They never “pushed for lgbtq” but did it as long as there was money to be made with. Now the climate changed in the US and they adapt.
Didn’t you also agree that the French AI is surprisingly good? If we can make that, why are you still so afraid?
Exactly. And the report also states that public investment is needed to pave the way for private investments. So it is mainly a policy issue - which can be addressed.
If we mean it when we say that it is in our strategic interest to keep Taiwan sovereign, then ultimately yes.
See above.