One more, in that PVV lost 11 and JA21 and FvD gained 12, which may just be a quota quirk.
One interesting question is where did NSC’s 20 seats go? In the past, opinion pollsters said some of their support moved from JA21, but if so, either they didn’t return there or some of PVV’s lost support moved to the centre not right. Maybe some of PVV’s previous supporters would prefer more stability than a party that torpedoes the coalition it leads?
As a cohort people seemed to have moved within the far right cohort. However asking individual people you get plenty of people that went from pvv to d66 or pvda. Which seems absurd in terms of policy but just proves most people have very shallow understanding of politics. Similarly NSC people seemed to have gone to almost all parties, mostly CDA (s expected) but also D66, JA21, PVDA, VVD, etc…
Can someone explain the rise and fall of NSC for people from other European countries? It seems quite absurd that a party can go from 20 to 0 in a span of 2 years.
New Social Contract (NSC) was a party by Pieter Omtzigt , a former member of parlement who was member of CDA, the christian democrat party. He’s been a very effective member of parlement for a long time, operating sovereignly within his party because he had a strong local backing behind him from the Twente region. He gained much prominence in the childcare benefits scandal, advocating for the victims of the scandal. He later ran for Lead Candidate within the christan democrat party CDA. He didn’t have the support of the party leadership and in a rather sketchy way he lost the race. He gained even more popularity in 2021 when in the formation some document leaked that said ‘Omtzigt functie elders’, which means ‘Omtzigt position elsewhere’, which implied other parties were willing to work with CDA but only if they somehow worked Omtzigt out of the way, presumably because he was too critical. Omtzigt eventually left CDA. He still had a lot of trust among the dutch public, whereas politics as a whole weren’t trusted very much. People were really hoping for Omtzigt to start his own party, and shortly before the next election he did. There was need for a new election because center-right wing party VVD said they wanted stricter immigration laws, which the other parties agreed with mostly but not entirely. This called for new elections. CDA collapsed from 15 to 5 seats. NSC went from 0 to 20 seats. Meanwhile far right PVV gained 37 seats and became the biggest party. NSC (center) joined a coalition with PVV (far right anti immigration), VDD (center right wing), and BBB (far-right farmers party). During that time Omtzigt left politics because he had burnouts repeatedly. The far right coalition government became a total disaster and after a year it collapsed this summer. Omtzigt never came back, so NSC had to run without the one person who was responsible for all the support they ever got. Meanwhile CDA got new leadership and went back to their roots. Henri Bontebal their new lead candidate broke with the parties recent past, went back to their origins, and ran a campagn on honesty, responsibility and most impportant: decency. Given the total disaster of the far right coalition they gained a lot of popularity. CDA when from 5 to 18 seats, NSC from 20 to 2.
This shows us how volatile dutch politics is. Perhaps a bit to volatile in recent decades. On the other hand, if a party screws up, they’ll be punished for it immediately, because the system is so dynamic. There’s some benefit to that aswell. It did CDA a lot of good, to be punished for behaviour in the past.
TL:DR: CDA screwed up, collapsed, NSC took over, NSC screwed up, CDA took over again.
Those people voted on the party because of the guy who started it (Pieter Omtzigt). He was very good at being a politician, but not very good at being a leader. Long story short, they didn’t deliver and failed to make an impact, despite their honest intentions. Pieter Omtzigt burned out within a year and the voters basically flocked back to the party they voted for in the election(s) before NSC was there.
It wasn’t a collapse of the far right , as JA21 and the other far right party grew more than Wilders collapsed
One more, in that PVV lost 11 and JA21 and FvD gained 12, which may just be a quota quirk.
One interesting question is where did NSC’s 20 seats go? In the past, opinion pollsters said some of their support moved from JA21, but if so, either they didn’t return there or some of PVV’s lost support moved to the centre not right. Maybe some of PVV’s previous supporters would prefer more stability than a party that torpedoes the coalition it leads?
As a cohort people seemed to have moved within the far right cohort. However asking individual people you get plenty of people that went from pvv to d66 or pvda. Which seems absurd in terms of policy but just proves most people have very shallow understanding of politics. Similarly NSC people seemed to have gone to almost all parties, mostly CDA (s expected) but also D66, JA21, PVDA, VVD, etc…
Can someone explain the rise and fall of NSC for people from other European countries? It seems quite absurd that a party can go from 20 to 0 in a span of 2 years.
New Social Contract (NSC) was a party by Pieter Omtzigt , a former member of parlement who was member of CDA, the christian democrat party. He’s been a very effective member of parlement for a long time, operating sovereignly within his party because he had a strong local backing behind him from the Twente region. He gained much prominence in the childcare benefits scandal, advocating for the victims of the scandal. He later ran for Lead Candidate within the christan democrat party CDA. He didn’t have the support of the party leadership and in a rather sketchy way he lost the race. He gained even more popularity in 2021 when in the formation some document leaked that said ‘Omtzigt functie elders’, which means ‘Omtzigt position elsewhere’, which implied other parties were willing to work with CDA but only if they somehow worked Omtzigt out of the way, presumably because he was too critical. Omtzigt eventually left CDA. He still had a lot of trust among the dutch public, whereas politics as a whole weren’t trusted very much. People were really hoping for Omtzigt to start his own party, and shortly before the next election he did. There was need for a new election because center-right wing party VVD said they wanted stricter immigration laws, which the other parties agreed with mostly but not entirely. This called for new elections. CDA collapsed from 15 to 5 seats. NSC went from 0 to 20 seats. Meanwhile far right PVV gained 37 seats and became the biggest party. NSC (center) joined a coalition with PVV (far right anti immigration), VDD (center right wing), and BBB (far-right farmers party). During that time Omtzigt left politics because he had burnouts repeatedly. The far right coalition government became a total disaster and after a year it collapsed this summer. Omtzigt never came back, so NSC had to run without the one person who was responsible for all the support they ever got. Meanwhile CDA got new leadership and went back to their roots. Henri Bontebal their new lead candidate broke with the parties recent past, went back to their origins, and ran a campagn on honesty, responsibility and most impportant: decency. Given the total disaster of the far right coalition they gained a lot of popularity. CDA when from 5 to 18 seats, NSC from 20 to 2.
This shows us how volatile dutch politics is. Perhaps a bit to volatile in recent decades. On the other hand, if a party screws up, they’ll be punished for it immediately, because the system is so dynamic. There’s some benefit to that aswell. It did CDA a lot of good, to be punished for behaviour in the past.
TL:DR: CDA screwed up, collapsed, NSC took over, NSC screwed up, CDA took over again.
Thanks, that was some great insight!
Those people voted on the party because of the guy who started it (Pieter Omtzigt). He was very good at being a politician, but not very good at being a leader. Long story short, they didn’t deliver and failed to make an impact, despite their honest intentions. Pieter Omtzigt burned out within a year and the voters basically flocked back to the party they voted for in the election(s) before NSC was there.
I see, it never works out for one guy alone to carry a new party forever.
Divide and conquer