Archived

European countries are ill-prepared for threat of co-ordinated sabotage attacks by Russia and China, a classified EU intelligence report has warned

[…]

The assessment, sent to Brussels in the spring […] underscores increasing concerns from Western officials that Beijing and Moscow are working in parallel, learning from each other’s tactics to undermine Western democracies and sow chaos.

“What is innovated by China on one end of the globe will be perfected by Russia on the other,” according to a portion of the report. “[EU nations] need to respond jointly and globally to attacks – even (or especially) those countries who are only indirectly affected.”

In a stark warning from EU diplomats to European commissioners, the document warns of “a gap” in Western thinking which China and Russia are seeking to “exploit”.

Experts consulted in the report, […] said that Russia is learning from Beijing’s so-called “grey zone” tactics in Taiwan, and perfecting them for use in Europe.

The term “grey zone” is used to describe the situation which exists between peace and open warfare and hostile activities fall just below what might be considered traditional acts of war.

[…]

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the UK and other European nations has seen an increase in suspected hybrid attacks co-ordinated by Moscow, such as cyber hacks, arson, disinformation and possible sabotage of critical undersea communication cables.

China has continued to deploy grey-zone warfare tactics by repeatedly encircling Taiwan with fighter jets and navy ships, launching cyber attacks, and making provocative statements of its desire to “reunite” with the self-ruled island. It has also launched at least a dozen rockets – or satellite missions – that have passed over Taiwan’s air defence zone in the past two years as fears of an all-out invasion grow.

[…]

The classified EU report argues that Taiwan is only a “sub-theatre” for a much larger war against the West “rather than just one country”.

Dr Sari Arho Havrén, a associate fellow at the Rusi think-tank and China analyst, said the tactics are “perfect tools” to attack the “vulnerabilities of open, democratic and rule of law societies” because Russia and China can work together to weaken Western nations while simultaneously maintain a “plausible deniability”.

She [said]: “China and Russia have deepened their co-operation and co-ordination on all areas, and not least on security and militarily.

[…]

“China’s support for Russia’s war economy through dual-use goods and sanctions evasion could be mirrored in a Taiwan scenario, with Russia also providing combat expertise or hybrid distractions like cyber attacks on European infrastructure.”

[…]

If Chinese President Xi Jinping wanted to attack Taiwan, “he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin… telling him, ‘Hey, I’m going to do this, and I need you to to keep them busy in Europe by attacking Nato territory’,” Rutte said in an interview with The New York Times.

[…]