Here is as close as I could find to the source data. Unfortunately, everything is listed in terms of “market share” which is great for “back slaps for the boys”, but less great for generating hypotheses for actual causes. What I would like is the raw numbers - what were the total devices for each OS?
My bets for what are driving this change, from least to most likely:
- Least likely: the average user, who is a lazy dumbass and knows nothing about OS’s, has educated themselves on open source operating systems and has decided to throw off the shackles of their corporate, closed-source overlords, and installed a complicated operating system they’ve never used before onto their home desktop/laptop (which they never use) using a flash drive (which is hidden in the junk drawer where they haven’t seen it for 7 years).
- Some small tech-based businesses switched from windows to unix-based systems for their desktops. Mostly, this means now everyone is using MacBooks, but they gave in to a few developers who wanted linux-based machines.
- Existing Linux users are finding the platform more stable for a daily driver, and are letting their windows machines go dark as the need to use them diminishes.
- Steam deck (caveat - does this count as a desktop OS? I kinda doubt it.)
- This has nothing to do with Linux. Windows users aren’t switching to open source operating systems. They are switching to mobile devices. The average user is simply leaving their windows home laptop in the closet somewhere, and without even noticing, has transitioned to using phones and tablets as their sole devices for day to day computing. Windows isn’t really losing market share to Linux - it is losing market share to Android and iOS. Usage of windows machines drops off because windows is an operating system for average users, who don’t care about computers that much. Linux users, on the other hand, are much more likely to be “computer people” who like to do things like develop software - a task which can only really be accomplished in a desktop environment. So the total number of Linux desktops stays stable, while the number of windows machines drops off -> “increased” Linux market share.
Here is a different (in my opinion probably better) source: https://analytics.usa.gov/
It also shows Linux above 5%. I agree that most people are switching to phone and/or tablet, but: the total devices are increasing AND the total number of phone/tablet devices are increasing AND the linux share is increasing
I would expect that as the denominator (all devices which includes an ever increasing number of phone/tablet) increases that Windows, mac and linux would decrease. I am surprised (and happy) that Linux is increasing!
Hmmm… Interesting! Maybe I’m mistaken
Can we also have an open source surge against Android, with valid providers in all countries?
I think android would be a better base to build on. don’t look at their messy kernel, but the userspace. rip out the brainded, user-hostile limitations that google added in recent years, or reimplement them better, and it’s pretty good.
sure continue pmos development, and plasma mobile and other components, but don’t just ditch out a system that has worked well for so many time and been developed by lots of people by a company who has poured in lots of money
I personally like Android
What we need is better AOSP
We totally can, but not yet. Postmarket is trying hard AF.
The whole Voice/SMS/VoLTE/DataLTE side of things is proprietary, so they’re reverse engineering it, but it’s painfully slow. Probably once they crack it open, the industry will try to protect it behind encryption and DRM.
The year of the Linux desktop isn’t as interesting anymore. It all sort of works good enough for most people not to need to care now.
What we need is the year of the Linux phone. And it think that we will have to still wait a long time for it. And no, Google/Linux does not count.
No, because the “surge” in market share is almost certainly driven not by the average user’s love of open source software, but by the average user simply letting their laptop die as they switch to phones and tablets as their sole computing devices. Windows users aren’t becoming Linux users. They are becoming Android users.
I think a big part of this is PC builders choosing an OS. There is so much content on YouTube about switching to Linux, and people have experience with the Steam Deck as well, which also factors in.
That’s me now! Yayyy!
Yup! Just installed it on my laptop after several tries running into bugs during install. My desktop is next, but I’m not ready for the headaches of figuring out a dual-boot yet. I’m mentally preparing for it, though, so fingers crossed.
So I might as well ask beforehand: Does anyone have a preferred tutorial for it? I prefer a recommendation to going in blind.
I don’t think it needs a tutorial, it’s automatic. but some advice:
- don’t delete any partitions, shrink them if you need space. who knows if windows needs it to boot
- either have 2 ESP partitions (requires motherboard support), or use a different disk for linux. if windows and linux share an ESP, windows updates can somehow fuck up the linux boot chain, which is wonderful because everything is placed in per-OS directories. you don’t have to order from amazon
- disable fast startup in windows (control panel, energy settings, what does the power button do menu), because it’s hibernation every time
- disable hibernation, or handle with care. you shouldn’t boot linux while windows is hibernated: changes the ESP and windows filesystems might haven’t been written completely, also windows will do unpredictable things if these get changed while it’s hibernated. linux kernel updates and efibootmgr changes could also make windows to drop its hibernated state and not load it
- if you use multiple disks, consider creating a linux filesystem there. ext4, btrfs, whatever, former is fine if you don’t know the difference. ntfs filesystems can be accessed well (except symbolic links?), but it’s slow, cpu-heavy because of an implementation detail that makes it maintainable
Hello. Not really a tutorial but a bit of advice: get a new internal SSD from Amazon and install it on that, leaving your Windows drive alone. It is a lot less of a headache if Linux is on a dedicated drive.
Okay Linux users, no snark about this distro is better than that one. We’re all just one happy family.
It really could be more if the linux user community could agree on things and stop gatekeeping - which seems to be the only thing most online active linux users can agree on “ermagerd eternal september” 🙄
Anti Commercial-AI license
You know they steal books by the library right? How is this line supposed to do anything? It reminds me of the Facebook copy and paste spam like “Don’t make my photos publicly available” after the person already uploaded a million photos on their page
Not really the same, as Facebook ToS means they own everything you upload. Not the case here.
It’s a little badge they like to wear.
Used to be a lot longer and more annoying.
You know they steal books by the library right?
Looking forward, analysts predict Linux could hit 7% by 2027 if trends continue, driven by AI integrations in distributions like those from Canonical
Sure. That must be the reason.
People gagging so hard on the AI dick that they try to reason that people going to open source are doing it for AI… What a world
Yeah Windows better hurry up and get some AI integration!
Gotta shove AI into everything to prevent the bubble from collapsing.
certainly not like I specifically switched over to avoid having an AI automatically launch on start-up without my permission.
Glad they mentioned distros to avoid for their AI integration.
Is it… dare I say it… the year of the Linux desktop?
Always has been! 🚀🔫
🌎👨🚀🔫👨🚀
Well it’s fucked now, I thought we all agreed not to say it and see if it made any difference
Shhhhhh! You’ll jinx it!
The year of the linux desktop will only happen if no one said that year is the year of the linux desktop
It’s the geek version of The Game. Also, I just lost.
Half Life 3 confirmed!
We’ll see at the end of the year. Don’t celebrate too soon.
I’m just bitching, but I had to put windows on one of my machines for the first time in just over 10 years (since I was a kid) and I absolutely fucking hate it. slow ass, bloated, clunky ass OS. garbage software.
Linux Mint runs so fast on my laptop that was struggling to boot Windows 11.
Also, no driver issues yet! Whew.E: I spoke too soon, the wifi turns off for reasons.
Use the IoT LTSC version and install it using Rufus. Zero bloat, very fast, no clunk.
Just a tip: If you installed Pro or better you can use Group Policies (gpedit.msc) to strip the OS bloat down slightly more than the Home versions. Education and Enterprise also have the telemetry spyware completely removed. But they have a few extra things you’ll probably never use and you’ll want to disable (like their terrible Remote Desktop stuff, Work Folders, etc.)
(I dual boot for gaming. So I know the pain.)
im sure most of yall know but it was new to me that you can use some terminal commands while installing to activate pro edition and ms office pro and other stuff fairly easily https://github.com/massgravel/Microsoft-Activation-Scripts
MAS <3
Bonus: If you use the new TSForge method, it’s a permanent hardware registration. Meaning you’ll never have to activate Windows again, just connect to the internet and it’ll do it’s thing when it calls home.
It also has ESU support for Windows 10, so you can register for the extended security updates after it reaches EOL completely free.
as soon as I’m done taking the cysa+ exam I’m going back to arch. I can not stand this. but thank you for the info! I’ll dig around and see what more I can do to make it a bit more bearable.
Oh, in that case, I assume they have you running Pro or Enterprise? If so, ignore what I said about disabling the Remote Desktop and Work Folder stuff. Work Folders especially though, they’re a complete pain (or were) and used pretty frequently. So you’ll probably be working with them a bit.
nah I don’t think so. like literally as soon as I get done with the exam, it’s so over for windows.
Looking forward, analysts predict Linux could hit 7% by 2027 if trends continue, driven by AI integrations in distributions like those from Canonical
Or rather, by their optionality. Some people want those tools, some don’t want to touch them with a 3m pole; Linux can appease to both, unlike Windows is doing.
I just made the switch on my daily driver yesterday to Endeavor OS! Am I allowed to say I use Arch btw?
Yes. It is arch with a calamaris installer.
It’s based on arch, so technically sure, but be prepared for the pedantry. Ran arch for years, switched to endeavor because it allowed for a basic sway install to rice on pretty easily without having to configure every little thing. Arch is great, but maintenance can get old after a while.
And I thought technically correct was the best kind of correct. I chose it because SteamOS is an Arch fork so I thought there would be less finagling for games.
Proton and the like should be mostly ok on most Linux distro, the main reason for arch for a lot of people is the AUR and being able to get the latest updates first. It’s a bit of a double edged sword, but it rarely is an issue once you get the basics down. That being said make sure to occasionally read the arch wiki, it’s often a better resource than just copy pasting forum fixes that might cause other issues or just not work. Hope you enjoy!
The Arch Wiki is easily the most helpful documentation I have used in the switch to Linux. Absolute treasure trove of useful information in an approachable form
I just switched to Garuda Dr460onized as my daily driver. Fucking love it! Am I also allowed to say I use Arch btw?
No forks allowed, sorry
Dozens of us!!
…but this is actually good news. I’m glad to hear it.
I am the 5%!!
This is really market share against Microsoft, not Mac. For good reason too, Microsoft is working very hard to ruin their company. They’re losing a lot of ground to Mac as well, especially in the small business sector where many things are web based now anyways. Run an MSP and we’ve had quite a few clients get fed up with inconsistent updates and repeated dumb problems… looking at you WSD and printing.
They went from 98% to 70%
70% is a lot but the completion is starting to slowly gain up. If companies like Google and Apple made something good Microsoft would be in serious trouble.
Oh don’t worry. Apple has been working very hard on enshitifyjng their OS. They just don’t get reported on as much as Microsoft.
I worked for an MSP that supported an all-Mac environment. Got real tired of telling people that their problem was a well-known bug in Mac that Apple has ignored for over 10 years and would probably never be fixed. I had to give that explanation a lot, for many different issues.
At least with Windows people expect problems like that. Mac people refuse to believe anything could possibly be Apple’s fault.
I had a Mac user chew me out for putting on a non-Apple mouse that JUST DOESN’T WORK ON MAC!!!1! Found out that he’d used the non-Apple mouse fine for about a month, then changed his desk to one with a glass top, and wasn’t using a mousepad. So the laser just shot through the clear glass and did fuck-all. Didn’t even have the decency to look abashed when I tossed a magazine down as a mousepad for him until we could get him some artist-approved mousepad bullshit. Fucking ad agencies are full of twats.
where many things are web based now anyways
Wait, Randall knows about xmonad?
I don’t know about xmonad, but let’s assume Randall knows everything.
Thanks Microsoft!
I wonder if SteamDeck counts toward desktop share here? It kinda is a desktop OS, even though it’s mainly used on a handheld device. Either way, I think that contributes a lot to normalization and stability of the ecosystem, if not device count.
The big factor though is probably just a shrinking market. For people that aren’t computer nerds or businesses, it’s getting less likely they own a laptop or desktop, and more likely they think their phone is good enough.
They count by website traffic so probably not, no.
Only if Steam Decks are being counted by StatCounter
