I’ve been thinking about how a lot of science fiction portrays futures that feel far more optimistic than the world we actually seem to be heading toward.
In real life we’re dealing with many simultaneous, compounding crises: AI being deployed in ways that cannibalize society under capitalism, an ever increasing cost of living with fixed wages, declining birth rates (people replacing children with pets/mascots), pollution, mass extinction of biodiversity, climate change, etc. It feels less like “one big problem” and more like death by a thousand cuts.
By contrast, in most SF stories there are usually one or two central issues to grapple with—an evil AI, an empire, climate collapse—but rarely the overwhelming stack of interlocking failures we see in reality. Even dystopias often feel strangely cleaner and more legible than real life.
Is there a known psychological explanation for this? Something like optimism bias, positivity bias, planning fallacy, or cognitive overconfidence, where we systematically underestimate complexity and overestimate humanity’s ability to coordinate and improve? Or is it more about narrative constraints and what the human mind can comfortably model?
Curious if there’s research, theory, or even just good takes on why imagined futures so often look “better” than the present.
Think from the angle of the story and what you desire to tell from the said story.
An advanced post scarcity civilization developed through cooperation and pacifism , but what happens when one element on the fringe of the human federation suddenly starts assimilating other neighboring regions? Will the doctrine endure or will it collapse under the practical test?
That dystopias feel cleaner is kinda worrying statement in my eyes. It’s not that they’re cleaner but it’s usually the recognizable issue that’s been dialed to 11, or perhaps what will happen when the Genie is out of the bottle… does the story grapple with the possible solution or it’s a simply a cynical take of the writer behind the curtain?
There is something to the the mindset of the author and what or how do they want to tell. Without a doubt the current “Zeitgeist” also plays on their mindset and what sort of a story or perhaps a scenario they’re setting up.